Who is contending for Australian grain in 2023?


The information is out for the 2023 season grain exports, November 2022 to October 2023. So who were the huge young boys this year?

The last harvest was substantial, and for that reason, the export volume was similarly big. Throughout the season 31.2 mmt of wheat was exported.

The most significant purchaser was China, at 24% of the overall volume of our exports. This was followed carefully by Indonesia.

We have actually discussed the increased volumes that China is purchasing (see here) and the value of Indonesia (see here). The leading 5 nations correspond to 66% of the overall volume exported.

Expect we were fretted about being too dependent on China for barley. Should we be fretted about the volumes of wheat they are purchasing? I do not truly believe we require to stress; they will purchase based upon cost– trade circulations will alter, we simply require to accept that.


Barley has actually been a concern for the previous number of years. We lost a substantial purchaser in the type of China, and needed to export to a great deal of nations at smaller sized volumes.

That was till August when China returned into the marketplace. In the 3 months leading up to completion of the season, China imported 1.09 mmt, or 14% of the total export program. An excellent task in a brief time period. Saudi Arabia was the significant purchaser for it’s sheep programs at 1.8 mmt or 23%.

As we move into 2024, I anticipate we will see China emerge once again as the nation’s location for barley.


Something I constantly discover fascinating is that individuals are worried about variety. We constantly appear to wish to promote as lots of export locations as possible when the marketplace is too greatly manipulated towards specific nations (see here).

The canola market is greatly manipulated towards Europe; in the chart below, the leading 10 export locations for canola are shown. If we build up the European nations, which are the exact same for all intents and functions, over 57% of the overall volume went to Europe.

What about Rate?

In 2015 was a substantial year for prices. We had the black sea dispute, which triggered rates to rocket, then months and months of stop-start settlements for the black sea grain passage.

As we moved through 2024, the marketplace lost ground throughout the majority of our grains.

The charts listed below reveal the typical cost for each product transformed into Australian dollars per tonne. This is the overall worth divided by the volume exported for each month to supply an indicator of the pattern.

Market Share

I discussed our dependence on specific trading partners in the barley and canola area. This will constantly hold true. Grain will stream to those going to pay one of the most.

If we take a look at the total sell our 3 primary grain products, we can see that China is the most significant client by a healthy margin. The Chinese share of our grain trade would be significantly greater if they had actually acquired more than 3 months of barley.

These 10 countries (or trading blocs) represent 75% of our overall sell barley, wheat and canola.

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